Quantum News Nexus

D-Wave Quantum announced hours before its first-ever investor day event that it has nailed down its gate-model computing roadmap timeline. The company is aiming by 2032 to have a system with 100 logical qubits capable of performing more than 1 million operations.

Here’s the roadmap in more detail:

2026: Delivery of a 17-physical-qubit system that supports logical error rates 2 times lower than physical error rates

2027: Completion of a 49-phsyical-qubit system that can deliver an expected 20-fold error reduction factor over the physical error rate

2028: Completion of a 181-physical-qubit system that can deliver an expected 2,000-fold error reduction factor over the physical error rate, representing the scalable blueprint for fault-tolerant architectures

2030: Completion of a 10-logical-qubit system that can support the first fault tolerant algorithms

2032: Completion of a 100-logical-qubit system capable of successfully performing more than one million operations that can support initial quantum chemistry and quantum AI applications

Among superconducting quantum computing companies, the timing of 2032 for 100 logical qubits is at least three years behind IBM’s roadmap for fault-tolerant system 200 logical qubits. Another superconducting firm, Rigetti Computing, hasn’t put a firm target on 100 logical qubits. Meanwhile, IonQ, working with tapped-ion systems, is aiming to have as many as 800 logical qubits next year.

Some companies say 100 logical qubits is the threshold at which “practical” quantum advantage becomes a reality. But, D-Wave already has quantum annealing systems that are tackling a variety of real-world optimization problems for numerous customers, so how much do roadmap timing differences really matter? IBM has many systems deployed around the world, IonQ is pulling in more revenue than anyone else in the sector every quarter. There are any number of metrics–technical, financial, and otherwise–we can play with to measure progress and success.

The years between roughly 2029 and 2034 will be very interesting because we will start to see if there is room for dozens of firms and multiple computing modalities in the market, and if there may even be enough opportunity for different approaches to the same mode (D-Wave’s dual-rail qubits vs. IBM’s transmon qubits, for example). Customer decisions may come down to many different variables–overall performance, error rate, power consumption, physical footprint, price, long-term scalability, the vendor’s corporate stability. The market could also look very different by then in terms of revenue leaders, who has the most customer engagements, and who has acquired whom.

Roadmaps are important, and will help customers figure out their own long-term strategies for quantum computing, but I don’t think the timing of roadmap milestones is a way to predict winners.