Quantum News Nexus

Quantum News Nexus is a new site from freelance writer and editor Dan O’Shea that covers quantum computing, quantum sensing, quantum networking, quantum-safe security, and more. You can find him on X @QuantumNewsGuy and doshea14@gmail.com.

The rally continues… Quantum computing stock values have been hitting record highs almost daily over the last week, and as usual with such rallies, it was not one big thing (or just one company, contrary to what some might believe), but a lot of little things that inspired the bulls to run.

Like it or not, the stock markets are now more news-driven and event-driven than ever, and quantum-related news and events are two things that lately have been in great supply. What’s been trending:

The funding boom. We talked about this at QNN recently, but a handful of major funding announcements landed within days (sometimes hours) of one another at the start of September. All of the companies making funding news are privately-owned for now, although two of them now have a clear path for a stock market debut. This may have sent investors running toward the quantum stocks they can actually buy now.

Nvidia’s handing out money! In that same recent post, we talked about Nvidia being at the center of the most recent quantum funding boom, either as an investor or partner to the rising quantum start-ups. Well, it turns out that Nvidia has decided to be a giant funding bull leaving massive cash droppings everywhere (Ok, maybe this analogy doesn’t work?) It saved Intel (well, after SoftBank saved Intel, and also after the US government saved Intel–Intel needs a lot of saving), it invested in self-driving tech firm Wayve, and now it’s planning to invest as much as $100 billion in OpenAI. A winner picks winners, and Nvidia has been ramping up its quantum involvement all year. Its outlays across the broader tech sector are only giving other investors more confidence in quantum, especially given quantum’s growing connections to AI.

IonQ’s full stack of news: Some may think this quantum stock rally is all IonQ’s doing, and there is a good argument for that: The company’s September 12 Analyst Day event certainly brought out the bulls with upgrades for IonQ’s stock, and IonQ smartly followed with a year’s worth of news in just a few days, including its acquisition of quantum sensors firm Vector Atomic, the completion of its deal to buy Oxford Ionics, its signing of an MoU with the US Department of Energy, and culminating with its involvement in an EPB Quantum announcement from Quantum World Congress. And that doesn’t even count the brash comments of IonQ’s CEO about kicking partner Nvidia’s butt in the long run. Such boldness could be a red flag (see below), but right now it’s music to quantum investors’ ears.

Yes, it might all seem like an IonQ-fueled buy-up, except companies like D-Wave Quantum, Quantum Computing. Inc., and Rigetti Computing also were making their own news last week. All three have enjoyed recent stock upgrades and fairly positive analysis. D-Wave used its inaugural Qubits Japan conference to talk up its Asia-Pacific market progress and highlight its work with NTT CoCoMo and Japan Tobacco. QCI announced a $500-million, oversubscribed private placement of common stock. Meanwhile Rigetti announced in collaboration with Qphox that it had earned a $5.8 million quantum networking deal from the Air Force Research Laboratory (not that contracts with quantum-giddy AFRL are rare in this industry. If you don’t have one, you should probably question your own existence.) Still, Rigetti fought like crazy just to survive this long after layoffs and other troubles, and its latest contract seems like another step forward on the comeback trail.

It’s a busy meet-up time for the quantum ecosystem: Not only were Quantum World Congress and D-Wave’s event last week (and smaller conferences like the Texas Quantum Summit), but we have got an array of conferences and company showcases coming later this fall, including Inside Quantum Technology’s Quantum+AI event in NYC Oct. 19-21, Nvidia’s GTC AI conference in Washington, D.C., Oct. 27-29 (certain to feature some valuable info on quantum and AI after the company’s GTC Spring conference highlighted quantum), and SC25 in St. Louis Nov. 16-21.

Yep, investors have been vibing on quantum. Will it last? No. Also, maybe yes. 

No, in the sense that the still very young quantum sector has seen stock surges before, and values usually fall back a little closer to Earth when investors realize that the quantum market is still as filled with hype as it is bursting with real promise. It is a long game in which companies are still striving for better fault-tolerance, and still trying to prove the difference their hardware and software can make in the world. Some bombastic statements like the one from IonQ’s CEO are easy bait for doom enthusiasts, among them still-countless short-sellers, who are have shouted before, are very close to shouting again, or might already be shouting, “Enough already!”

Companies in this sector are starting to earn real dollars for their quantum hardware and software, but not Nvidia-like amounts of money, and many of them still have tons of debt from all the investment required to build their quantum stuff. There may be many more surges and falls before we see something like a blue-chip quantum stock (and even when that happens, it could be IBM or Nvidia or Google, and not necessarily one of the pure-play quantum start-ups).

But, the answer is also sort of a qualified yes in that the awareness level about what quantum computing, quantum sensing, quantum-safe security, and quantum networking are has never been higher. Quantum computing’s symbiotic connection to AI has never been tighter, and it can only continue to benefit from that. Quantum computing’s mutually-beneficial relationship with classical computing has never been more clearly understood than it is right now. Quantum sensing brings precision to a world craving accurate data. Quantum-safe security is only getting closer to the day when it will be called to the front lines of the cyber security wars. Quantum networks are getting closer to reality, and will serve as the rails for everything else quantum.

One other thing could fuel a longer quantum stock rally: The Trump Administration reportedly is readying a quantum-related Executive Order and possible update to the US’ national quantum strategy. We’ll see what happens there. The US-UK tech alliance announced last week ended up being a little short on specific quantum details, but if an administration update on quantum turns out anything like Trump’s AI order, it could further goose the quantum stock market.

QNN won’t go as far as offering a guide to investing in quantum stocks (for that, check out this timely piece at The Quantum Insider). In any case, enjoy the quantum stock build-up. It could already be ending by the time you have read this. Or maybe it’s just begun.

Image from freepik, generated by AI